A Probabilistic Model for the Management of a Tram Fleet

The maintenance of transport vehicles represents an important aspect of the operating costs of a TPL (local public transport) company. This work analizes the programmed and corrective maintenance procedures of a recent tram fleet. Starting from machine shop’s data, after a careful technical and economic analysis, a set of two models has been developed in order to forecast and point out time and operating cost of the examined stock, using the RAM parameters’ characteristics: a probabilistic model for the anomaly management in line and for the analysis of shops’ maintenance operations, and a model for the calculation of LCC (Life Cycle Cost). The procedure has been applied to a TPL company obtaining satisfactory results consistent, under an economic point of view, with balance data and, under a reliability point of view, consistent with the purchasing specifications.